This is the fifth aim of the Achieve Economic Wellbeing outcome. It is concerned with the percentage of children living in workless or low-income households.
Employment Forecasts for Bristol
Gross Disposable Household Income
ILO Unemployment
Claimant Count (Jobseekers Allowance)
Claimant Count Forecasts
Worklessness
Concentrations and Persistence of Worklessness
Economic Deprivation
Income Deprivation
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Employment Forecasts for Bristol
In 2010 it’s forecast that there will 247,000[1] jobs in Bristol including self-employment. This estimate differs from the number of people in employment, as some people will have more than one job. By 2020 the number of jobs in Bristol is forecast to increase by 8.0% compared with 12.1% increase over the same time period in South Gloucestershire. The increase in jobs in South Gloucestershire could also benefit Bristol residents as many commute across the district boundary to work.
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Gross Disposable Household Income
Gross disposable household income (GDHI) is the amount of money that individuals have available after tax, National Insurance, pension contributions and housing costs. GHDI is calculated based on where individuals live rather than where they work. It can also be used to provide an indicator of relative wealth in an area compared to another area as it includes people in receipt of benefits as well as income received from earnings.
The latest figures estimate that gross disposable household income per head in Bristol is £13,195[2] compared with £14,334 in the UK as a whole. However, in terms of Core Cities[3] Bristol has the highest GDHI per head.
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ILO Unemployment
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition for unemployment rates is the proportion of the economically active[4] population in an area who are unemployed. In the UK this definition includes those people who are aged over 16, but does not have an upper age limit. Using this definition the unemployment rate for Bristol is 7.1%[5] compared with a national rate of 7.4%. In terms of Core Cities, Bristol has the lowest unemployment rate.
Figure 1 – ILO Unemployment by Core City
Source: Annual Population Survey
Claimant Count (Jobseekers Allowance)
The claimant count (the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance) is updated monthly. It is not a full count of the number of unemployed people as not everybody is eligible for Jobseekers Allowance and some people who are eligible choose not to claim, but it does provide a more up to date indicator of the level of unemployment at a Local Authority level than ILO unemployment, which is from the Annual Population Survey and is therefore survey based.
In March 2010 11,182 people in Bristol were claiming Jobseekers Allowance, which equates to 3.9% of the working age population. This is the lowest of the Core Cities. Nationally the claimant count rate was 4.2%.
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Claimant Count Forecasts
The number of people claiming Jobseeker Allowance (JSA) is not forecast to return to pre recession levels in the next decade. In 2008 the number of people claiming JSA in Bristol was 5,700[6], with a claimant count rate of 2.0%[7]. By 2009 this had risen to 10,800 people claiming JSA. By 2020, 10,900 people are forecast to be claiming JSA in Bristol which equates to a rate of 3.3%. This is in line with UK average, which is forecast to have a claimant count rate of 3.5% by 2020 compared with 2.8% in 2008.
One cause of this is that many employers chose to reduce the number of hours their staff worked in the recession rather than make employees redundant (known as hording). This resulted in unemployment in the recession peaking at lower than expected levels. However, as firms recover they are likely to increase the number of hours their staff work, rather than employ new staff.
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Worklessness
The number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance is a useful indicator of levels of unemployment. However, it is also possible to get an indication of the level of worklessness (people who are unemployed or economically inactive) in an area. Worklessness is measured as of the proportion of the working age population claiming out of work benefits. Out of work benefits include Jobseekers Allowance, Incapacity Benefit/Severe Disablement Allowance, lone parent benefits and other income-related benefits for working age people.
In November 2009, 39,410 working age people in Bristol met this definition of worklessness. This represents 13.7%[8] of Bristol’s working age population, compared with 13.4% nationally (Great Britain).
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Concentrations and Persistence of Worklessness
Whilst overall worklessness in Bristol is relatively low compared with other Core Cities, there are a number of neighbourhoods with concentrations of significant and persistent worklessness. These are broadly consistent with other measures of deprivation.
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Economic Deprivation
There are areas within the district that show signs of, or are at risk of economic and social exclusion. The 2007 Indices of Deprivation enable Bristol to identify these areas. The most deprived LSOA nationally has a ranking of 1.
Bristol has 252 LSOAs. In terms of overall deprivation Bristol has 39 LSOAs in the most deprived 10% nationally. Of these 39, there are 14 LSOAs in the most deprived 3%, and 4 in the most deprived 1%.
The map below illustrates overall deprivation in Bristol’s LSOAs relative to the England average. It also highlights deprivation ’hot spots’ in Bristol that are amongst some of the most deprived areas in the country yet are adjacent to some of the least deprived areas in the country.
Figure 2 – Deprivation by LSOA
Source: DCLG and Bristol City Council
Income Deprivation
There are 30 LSOAs in the most deprived 10% nationally for this domain, of these 14 are in South Bristol, 9 are in the central area and 7 in north Bristol.
‘Easton Road’ in Lawrence Hill ward is ranked 149th nationally and St Paul’s in Ashley ward is ranked 532nd both have more than half of their population experiencing income deprivation.
In addition to overall income deprivation, a supplementary index, Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) has been produced. This covers only children aged 0–15 living in income deprived households. 39 out of a total of 252 LSOAs in Bristol are in the most deprived 10% nationally for this domain.
All LSOAs within Lawrence Hill ward are in the most deprived 10% nationally. ‘St Pauls’ (20th) and ‘Easton Road’ (26th) are both in the most deprived 100 LSOAs in England.
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[1] Source: 2010 Oxford Economics, Central Growth Forecast
[2] Source: 2007 headline GHDI. The headline GDHI have been calculated using a five period moving average.
[3] Core Cities have been calculated using NUTS3 geography, excluding Greater Manchester which is a NUTS 2 area.
[4] people who are either in employment or unemployed
[5] Source: Annual Population Survey Oct 2008 – September 2009
[6] Source Oxford Economics 2010,Central Growth Scenario.
[7] Claimant Count rate is an annual figure expressed as proportion of working age population (16-59 and 16/64)
[8] Source: DWP benefits, working age client group, November 2009
Planning for the needs of Bristol's children and young people 